On Brexit: In Reply to Clive Pinder

“Given Pinder’s distaste for academia, I don’t imagine he would be fond of this kind of Platonic utopia.”

Introduction

In his July 14th Merion West letter, Clive Pinder responds to an essay of mine on the topic of Brexit. To begin with, it is worth noting that the form of Pinder’s response is extremely odd. He starts by discussing his puzzlement over the “general animus and disdain” that much of the American mainstream media and academia hold towards Brexit. He then goes on to cite one New York Times op-ed as a reference point, as well as my recent book review. Moreover, Pinder never takes the time to note that my article was in fact a review of Professor Kevin O’Rourke’s excellent book A Short History of Brexit: From Brentry to Backstop. This is important for several reasons. Firstly, Pinder never really takes the time to distinguish between my own arguments about Brexit, my evaluation of O’Rourke’s book, and the points made by the eminent economic historian himself. Secondly, Pinder seems to be responding to an American audience when he asks whether “the same people who clasp their hands to their chests and replicate the bombs bursting in air every Independence Day would embrace” the European Union. But O’Rourke is Irish, and, as I pointed out in my review, his book is quite gloomy about the potential impacts Brexit may have on his country, economically—and with reference to the prospect of escalating violence along a potential hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. So O’Rourke certainly has every right to be concerned. And anyone, for that matter, has a right to be concerned since the impact of the Brexit vote has resonated far beyond the shores of the United Kingdom.

Despite these confusions, I will try to address each of Pinder’s points one at a time to illustrate why I think the pessimistic appraisal of Brexit that O’Rourke and I share is warranted. I will also highlight some of the unusual claims made in his letter.

Brexit and the Economy

Pinder begins his letter by pointing out that the gloomy economic projections predicted by “Leave” haven’t come to pass and, in fact, that the British economy is doing quite well at the moment. As he puts it:

“The facts tell a different story. The British economy has the highest levels of employment in modern history and the highest levels of Foreign Direct Investment of any EU country. Indeed, UK PLC enjoys better growth than Germany. The reality is that, despite predictions by the then Chancellor of the Exchequer (an unrepentant “Remainer”) that a ‘Leave’ vote would cause an ‘immediate and profound’ economic shock with ‘rising unemployment and a recession,’ the sky has still not fallen.”