Manchin Needs to Vote His Conscience, Regardless of What That Means for November

“Signs point to another yes vote from Manchin. Yet, for all this posturing, voting out of fear of losing an election is not any more morally commendable than being whipped.”

Brett Kavanaugh, President Trump’s pick to replace retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy on the Supreme Court, is quickly approaching a confirmation hearing. Republicans could confirm Kavanaugh entirely without Democratic support, as long as Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski—prominent, moderate Republicans—hold the party line. Only should both break with their party would the result then lie with their moderate Democratic counterparts: Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.

As such, all three senators have been closely watched from the left. Voting to confirm Kavanaugh would be almost absurdly out of step with the party on the national stage—flouting calls to protect Roe v. Wade, to protect the ACA, to prevent a conflict of interest should Trump ultimately be indicted, to simply #resist the administration at every turn. These three, especially Manchin, are thus subject to significant coverage and pressure on the national stage. Yet, ultimately, their vote is unlikely to change whether Kavanaugh is placed on the court. While Collins and Murkowski could defect, it seems unlikely that Republicans could fail to confirm.

Then why the hype? Democrats believe that it will help their momentum coming into the midterms. For progressives to turn out in numbers that would fulfill the expectations of a blue wave, these voters need to believe that Democrats have their backs. Unfortunately, if red-state Democrats betray this trust, the resulting discouragement will likely be felt nationwide and could hurt Democratic candidates in all states. For a convincing and cohesive national argument to be made, Democrats must stick together to oppose the administration.